I will believe dietary fat and stored fat are different.
"Trans fats are a good example of a contradiction to this. Two groups of monkeys were put on a calorie deficit diet. THe group with no trans fats lost weight as expected. THe group that had transfats gained weight."
*** How is this possible? This violates conservation of energy! The more likely thing is that the one that ate tras fats had his metabolism lowered as time passed and therefore he no longer had a calorie deficit. How did the study monitor BMR?
"Then there is me, I tried a calorie restricted diet and lost very little weight. The went on a low carb diet where I at as many or more calories then when I was gain weight, and I lost weight doing that. These were both without exercise."
***Perhaps your calorie deficit was so large that your BMR slowed to keep you alive. That would be our evolutionary programming.
Where does it go? Usually it is wasted. It can just pass through. Insulin has a lot to do with what can be used and what can be stored.
Also some peoples intestines are better at absorbing nutrients. Everyone has some nutrients that don't get absorbed.
***If they arent getting absorbed, then that means even further (aside from BMR lowering) that they cant gain weight if they are below their caloric expenditure.
Cake VS oatmeal. The cake get converted fast and easy and spikes the insulin. You can't use it all right away, so it gets stored as fat, which will be as hard to loose as any fat. Later on you maybe loose a little fat, but the gains from the cake cancel it out. The oatmeal is harder to breakdown, this uses more energy (that means calories) It gets in the blood a little at a time and less insulin is needed. By the time it has all gone through, you have been able to use it up. There is nothing to cancel out your weight loss.
***This doesn't make sense. What you said is fine. But you are saying in the case of the cake that you can't use it up while in the case of the oatmeal, you can? Well if you arent using the oatmeal (ie exercising) then it too will get stored as fat. If you are exercising, then the oatmeal might be better as it is a carbohydrate and can provide more glycogen but the fat from the cake can also provide energy if you are exercising, especially in an aerobic mode, where fat is easily converted. In either case, I don't see how you have proven that one will result in a long term weight (calorie) gain.
The 9 times thing is here. http://www.exrx.net/FatLoss/Misconceptions.html
***This doesnt say the calorie expenditure is all at the time of lifting. It is listing the total calorie expenditure, which it seems is comparable to walking for 30 minutes? It doesnt say there are hidden calories getting burned after you stop lifting beyond this 300. The 300 is it. Furthermore, we are now talking about weight loss, not fat loss. Even if we are talking fat loss, clearly if you are running a calorie deficit and exercising, your muscle glycogen will get used up leaving fat and muscle tissue as fuel sources. While some muscle will likely be used (we agree on this I believe), some fat will also be used.
You said "Your fat loss will be very closely in the neighborhood of 1lb, whether it is 1.1lb or .9lb is within variation but it's not like it can be 7 lbs. or that you actually gain 3 lb. instead of losing." It is not that extreme, but yes you can gain a pound or loose 2 or 3.
Again, how can you gain anything? You are in a calorie deficit. Please explain the conservation of energy in this system. Where is the energy coming from to be stored as mass on the body? If you are storing without using it, then where is the energy coming from to do everyday activities? The answer is, nutrients affect the BMR which is altered so you are no longer in a calorie deficit. When you eat more in this phase, you gain even more weight because your metabolism is slowed from the low calorie eating. This doesnt have to do with nutrients magically altering their calorie content. It has to do with changing the output.
You said "The 1 fat guy probably is eating 1000 calories too many everyday and the other guy was only eating 200. Thus a smaller change can do a lot more."
That is impossible. One would be a lot fatter. According to your 3500 rules a larger calorie surplus would result in more fat gain.
*** I dont see how. The difference between the two fat people could also be composition even though they weigh a similar a mount. A difference in 2-4% muscle mass could account for large calorie burning differences over a few months.
I will look at these articles. Please note, I am not stuck on 3500 kcal/lb. I am stuck on that there is some number that provides a good baseline for accounting for fat in the body and how it is burned. Individuals are small variations on this baseline.