investing

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TimD
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Post by TimD » Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:22 am

TimG wrote:
Rucifer wrote:"Sophisticated people have retirement plans, rednecks- play the lottery!"
'The lottery is a voluntary state tax on those who don't understand math'
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I slightly disagree. The lottery is a tax on stupid.
Tim

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bam
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Post by bam » Wed Jan 05, 2011 3:25 pm

TimD wrote:
TimG wrote:
Rucifer wrote:"Sophisticated people have retirement plans, rednecks- play the lottery!"
'The lottery is a voluntary state tax on those who don't understand math'
Bumper Sticker
I slightly disagree. The lottery is a tax on stupid.
Tim
Yeah, you got that right. I bet these two idiots have been playing the lottery their whole lives....
2 winners for $380M lottery sold in Wash., Idaho
Associated Press
EPHRATA, Wash. (AP) -- After a nationwide frenzy for a life-changing chance to win a $380 million Mega Millions jackpot, the two winning tickets were sold in small Pacific Northwest towns just 125 miles apart....
Not that I play the lottery or anything. After all, I've taken a few statistics courses over the years. But still...

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Proper Knob
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Post by Proper Knob » Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:22 pm

'The lottery is a tax on hope'.

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Jungledoc
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Post by Jungledoc » Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:08 pm

Do the books say anything about socks or mattresses?

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bam
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Post by bam » Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:16 pm

Jungledoc wrote:Do the books say anything about socks or mattresses?
Just that they rarely pay interest.... granted, not a big issue during a deflation.

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stuward
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Post by stuward » Fri Jan 07, 2011 7:21 am

bam wrote:
Jungledoc wrote:Do the books say anything about socks or mattresses?
Just that they rarely pay interest.... granted, not a big issue during a deflation.
It really sucks during a hyper-inflationary period. Gold is definitely better. Make sure you keep a stash in your fallout bunker.

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bam
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Post by bam » Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:42 pm

stuward wrote:
bam wrote:
Jungledoc wrote:Do the books say anything about socks or mattresses?
Just that they rarely pay interest.... granted, not a big issue during a deflation.
It really sucks during a hyper-inflationary period. Gold is definitely better. Make sure you keep a stash in your fallout bunker.
Now wait a minute... if we're talking hyper-inflation, nothing beats cans of tuna and bullets. don't forget the can opener and gun.

People who are buyers of gold probably missed the cotton and oil boom, not to mention palladium. But those commodities don't have nearly as many talking shills out there.

OK, back to investing.... this should be of interest to investors....
http://www.coffeehouseinvestor.com/the- ... e-returns/

Anybody who can beat the coffeehouse returns, my hat's off to you!!

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Ironman
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Post by Ironman » Sat Jan 08, 2011 1:25 pm

Looks like an interesting site. I'll check it out.

Oh, but don't forget about the importance of seed banks. They can be used to grow crops as well as for barter you know.

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Post by nygmen » Sun Jan 09, 2011 6:41 pm

If you are buying gold now, you are completely lost.

If you bought it 5 or 10 years ago, fine, but now you are chasing the market.

It looks like a big ol' bubble just waiting to burst to me.

As for the time in which people envision using gold as a monetary unit again, and trading it directly for goods and services: Bam is right, you'll be better off investing in bullets if we ever get to that point.

Stu and Tim are/were in the armed forces, I'm going to their house's.

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bam
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Post by bam » Sun Jan 09, 2011 7:55 pm

"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." from A. Gary Shilling, Forbes (1993) v. 151, iss. 4, pg. 236.
Gold at $1400 is up 450% from the Aug ’99 low. From 1982 to 2000, the NASDAQ rose 3000% and the DJIA rose 1400%. From 1978 to 1989, the Nikkei rose 700%. From July ’98 to the high in July ’08, crude oil rose 1245%. From its low in Nov ’01, copper has risen 605%. I’m not calling a bubble in Apple but its up by 4850% since 2003 for the obvious reasons. Thus, just because an asset is higher and has done well for years doesn’t mean its a bubble, YET, and this gold rally which I’ve been bullish on for many years, still has room to run.
-Ritholtz

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Post by Jebus » Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:00 pm

Thats true, but if something is at an all time high, then you should not invest in it.

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bam
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Post by bam » Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:27 pm

Jebus wrote:Thats true, but if something is at an all time high, then you should not invest in it.
I can't argue with that. But if we just look at the macro situation, you can see risk is high in Europe. That could lead people in Europe to think that they need to hold gold even though the risk looks more like deflation than hyperinflation (to me).
For me, the specific problem with gold is that the general public is talking about it. Reminds me of back in 1999 when the bag boy at the grocery store gave me a stock tip. Or in 2005 when everyone I knew in the US owned 2 or more houses. Or like right now in China, where peasant farmers are taking out mortgages. When investing you always have to ask: 'to who am I going to sell this stuff?'

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Post by robt-aus » Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:51 pm

partially random:

i have made four non-cash (not term deposit/bank account) attempts at investing to far. of these

1st shares: company became insolvent. oops.
2nd index fund: i didn't have the wisdom of jebus and bought at the top of the market - value crashed, but is slowly improving
3rd & 4th: shares deflated, but are slowly improving.

surviving shares are in alcohol and gambling...

inspires great quote from monty python - 'investment advice? bring back martial law and go into rope'...

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TimD
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Post by TimD » Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:54 pm

Good choice, Eric, at least w/me anyway, When the bottom falls out, and we need gold or silver to barter, I'm locking and loading, and battoning down the hatches.
Tim

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bam
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Post by bam » Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:40 pm

TimD wrote:Good choice, Eric, at least w/me anyway, When the bottom falls out, and we need gold or silver to barter, I'm locking and loading, and battoning down the hatches.
Tim
And what will you be buying with gold and silver? Tuna and bullets....
Let's think this through a little. Do you really think the world's central banks are going to permit people with gold to unseat the global economic infrastructure? If anything you should probably consider a more likely alternative reserve currency. It certainly won't be gold. Why not just hold oil equities? They're priced in dollars, pay interest and represent a genuine resource that's a hedge against inflation. Even having a holding tank of gasoline in your backyard make more sense than coins. But if you really think the bottom is going to fall out it makes more sense to trade in small quantities of protein... cans of tuna. And if the bottom doesn't fall out, you can eat your "investment".

There's another option of course, don't batten down the hatches -- move your hatches to where the bottom hasn't fallen out. Be one of the 20% of Americans with a passport....

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